Also,

Mike and Bill bring up great points in regards to the Immersion events as touted on the AC- and that is that they have always been averaging about 200-300 maximum participants.

Some exceptions to that are the McDowell events (which have run between 500-900 at various stages) and the first Burkittsville which hit over 400.

I thin when you do a market analysis, that is the number of folks in the hobby that look for those type of events.  It is good that those numbers have not declined while many of the other markets have, like New Market/Cedar Creek/ GAC Style events.

Living History attendance numbers are also down, while more progressive battle events have slowly increased in size.

Example-

FOTM 2000- 1100 participants Registered
To the Gates of Washington, 2004- 1300 Participants Registered
Summer of 62, 2005- 1300 again
September Storm, 2007- 2200 Registered

Now I don't have the exact show up figures for each of these,but it seems a gradual growth  in that market is occuring.  Gradual is good- dramatic is bad.  

The Hobby is like a small business, we can handle small changes in "traffic" but large ones will bankrupt a market.

All in all, it seems the events run by reenactors for reenactors are where to put your "investment"

The key to success in any situation, is to know where to be and when to be there, and at least for the next several years, this is where the cheese has ran off to.

Pards,

Quote :

Anders wrote : Some exceptions to that are the McDowell events (which have run between 500-900 at various stages) and the first Burkittsville which hit over 400.

Chris,

I could be wrong, but I believe the Event Raters over on the A-C consider McDowell to be one of your style events, with different sponsors. (High end Mainstream.)

Bill, I think one can objectively state that the raters on the AC Forum have a decided bias.  For one thing, they've banned Chris, although I can't think of any of his events that wouldn't warrant at least a "Tier 3 EBUFU" rating, near as anyone can parse the criteria.  

One result of the current political slant is evident in the list of events slated for '08.  I think they have four that take place east of the mountains -- the field music school and three sponsored by the same small cadre of CR or SWB.  Fine groups, but there should be several more on that list. The ultimate effect is to narrow their focus both geographically and demographically, which is kind of a shame.

It's not so much the finished cheese is moving, but the cheese is clotting in a few places. Without making this yet another Tolstoy-length post on this subject, I'll offer a few observations.

1. The largest "growth" has been in the encampment and skirmish event, which is even smaller than the local fests we've often termed "the battle of something local."  Grumpy would call these SOYA's, and they are a hybrid between a living history, a small battle reenactment, and a good binge at deer camp. In any given year, it seems every burg between the Cape Fear River and the St. Lawrence Seaway has one of these. Flip through CCG, CWN, CC, etc., and you'll see a few thousand of these listed, yet many more are out there unlisted and generally associated with a harvest fest or spring fest or something along those lines.

2. A number of people are gravitating towards the improved mainstream events. After a decade or more of being screwed out of wood, water, solid waste management, parking, and enduring busted scenarios in exchange for being in the center ring of a three ring circus (vendors, 'taters, reenactors), is there any wonder participants are enjoying getting what they paid for? Contrary to popular dogma, a good number of campaigners, progressives, and hardcores attend these events, and while the reviews are mixed, they sure beat the crap out of what the Don & Glenn Show were offering as bait and switch in the not so distant past. Don't laugh too loud and too long, but Andersburg is on the list of events to be discussed at the battalion meeting this coming Saturday afternoon in Elmira.

3. I'll let the numbers speak for themselves, and although absolutely no one will comprehend what I mean by this, I'll mention the 2007 list has a few more names to be added from the additions between October 19th and 25th:

2005 299/4
2006 795/13
2007 634/7

In 2008, I'm hoping we can finally convert from the inaccuracies of registration to actual participation, starting with W64. What we don't see here is the number of participants who buy in to 3 or more events each year, and they comprise the core of EBUFU.

Bill,

Yes, I guess folks who are no longer involved with Mcdowell are calling it a mainstream event.

It wasn't considered mainstream back when they were part of the program...and the program has only changed for the more progressive over the years.

Ever read Animal Farm?  Good primer for cph politics.

Quote :

Michael Schaffner wrote : Bill, I think one can objectively state that the raters on the AC Forum have a decided bias.

Quite true. The event bias is quality over quantity. Of the approximately 2,200 events in 2008, less than 10 will be Tier 1 EBUFU events.  Some of us would like to see that winnowed down to less than a half dozen for 2009 (and  beyond) for a tighter focus.
 

Quote :

For one thing, they've banned Chris, although I can't think of any of his events that wouldn't warrant at least a "Tier 3 EBUFU" rating, near as anyone can parse the criteria.

Andersburg is listed. I was surprised to see the annual Bedford Officer School hadn't been submitted, since it is a training event. Perhaps it was, but didn't make it out of the focus group.

Quote :

One result of the current political slant is evident in the list of events slated for '08.

Part of the so-called politics relates to whether or not people bother to participate in the program, or just whine on the sidelines about their events not being ESP-friendly. It's amazing how some organizers can get their events out there two or three years in advance, and others toss a road apple in the punchbowl less than 60 days ahead of time, and expect people to be thrilled with that nonsense. How difficult is it to send up a flare during the June-August timeframe? Obviously, communication is more difficult for some than it is for others. I'll add to this the fact some groups do not want their events publicly listed at all, and other groups don't want publicity, but they do want to participate in the coordination that goes on behind the scenes.

Quote :

I think they have four that take place east of the mountains -- the field music school and three sponsored by the same small cadre of CR or SWB.  Fine groups, but there should be several more on that list. The ultimate effect is to narrow their focus both geographically and demographically, which is kind of a shame.

Sad to say, but the vast majority of truly great events do not take place east of the big scary mountains.

Tier 1

New York
Arkansas
Georgia
Virginia
Missouri
Georgia
Tennessee
Virginia

Tier 2

Tennessee
Georgia
Missouri
Mississippi
Virginia
Georgia
Missouri
Texas
Kentucky
Virginia
Georgia
Tennessee
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Virginia
Tennessee

Tier 3

Pennsylvania

Hmmm, looks like Andersburg has a lock on 100% of the 2008 Tier 3 events at the moment. I guess that indicates a heck of a bias here, folks, but I suspect we'll see more adjuncts and carpe eventa as the season rolls on.

Of course the Bedford Officer school is on, March 28-30, 2008.

info will be at www.chesapeakevolunteerguard.org as usual.

But since I no longer post on the AC, folks will have to find information on here or the Szabo board.

Chris,

I'm sure you'll have plenty of people that will be attending the event even if it's not posted on the AC forum.

"Andersburg is listed. I was surprised to see the annual Bedford Officer School hadn't been submitted, since it is a training event. Perhaps it was, but didn't make it out of the focus group."

Charles, AHT is there because Chris submitted it in July before he was banned.  One measure of how easy it is to submit anything related to him is the fact that my first attempt to simply post an AAR of September Storm got pulled and was only restored after a direct appeal to Calloway.

This followed on the AC's purge of McDowell.  These actions, combined with an obscure process for approval (who's on that focus group, anyway?), will pretty much ensure that Chris's events remain delisted, whatever their merits.  Your efforts to achieve exclusivity are paying off in the form of more and more people who simply won't bother.  Everyone loses from that.  If you're genuinely open, I'll try to be the first to get Bedford posted on the AC.

As for the 60 day complaint, I noticed that such a timeframe wasn't a problem for this year's "Death March" event, which was announced on June 24, to begin on August 10. If I calculate that correctly, it's a little under 50 days.

See http://www.authentic-campaigner.com/forum/showthread.php?t=11375

Chris was banned when he placed a similarly short notice of the Kerns' tactical in "Tier 1."  According to Linda Trent's AAR, it belonged there.  By the standards applied to the "Death March" it wasn't too short a notice.  Nonetheless the AC "moderators" (and I use the term loosely) let their apparent pique at Anders overcome their objectivity.

Inconsistency is perhaps the kindest term one can apply in this case.  A more accurate one might be hypocrisy.

I don't agree with Chris about everything, and I understand how he can grate some people the wrong way.  But I think his analogy to Orwell's satire of boshevism is dead on in this case.  Beyond that, I think he has a perceptive and intelligent vision of where the hobby is and where it's heading, and a coherent business plan for getting it there.  You on the other hand have a lot of time to spend online.

Michael, do you actually believe what you just wrote? So much of that is fantasy, that the amount of hubris involved with its creation is incalculable. Please let me know before I waste time going through it line by line with places, dates, and times.

Quote :

GrumpyDave wrote : There are only 20 people in the hobby and they are all trolls. I thought it was time for some humor.

You are wrong, wrong, wrong, dead wrong!!!!!!!!

There are 22 people in the hobby.  Five are gnomes.

"Michael, do you actually believe what you just wrote? So much of that is fantasy, that the amount of hubris involved with its creation is incalculable. Please let me know before I waste time going through it line by line with places, dates, and times."

If you could have, you would have.  Not that anyone here would believe you, Charles.  

"Sad to say, but the vast majority of truly great events do not take place east of the big scary mountains."

Speaking of hubris, I've wondered about the source of these ex cathedra pronouncements you tend to make from time to time. What's the basis for your authority?  

Where are all the guys who are as proud to have served in your regiment as they were in one of Duke's or Watson's?  Or the guys who could say they learned something in the ranks of your company?  I thought Bill Cross did a pretty good job with the Dutch company at McDowell in '03 -- I've seen you rip into him elsewhere, but I've never heard of you doing as much.

I know you've done a ration issue or two, but Don Hubbard had you beat there and you're not even in the same league as Ron Myzie.

Over on the other forum you used to beat Chris Anders like a drum -- not to his face, of course.  But where are the events that you've organized, or the schools and camps of instruction you've held, or the classes you've taught?  

Where are the guys you've mentored, as opposed to egged on?

Bonus question: Refer back to Rules 92 and 93.  Apart from 40 or 50 thousand posts on the OTB -- which admittedly doesn't leave you a lot of time for actual research or organization -- what do you actually bring to the table?

Really, I'm curious.

Well,

As folks have stated, there is a huge difference between the hobby on the field and on the web- In fact they are two different hobbies.

They have very little if anything in all in common.  The ramblings of keyboard kings pontificating about this or that really translates into little or no effect on the hobby when it hits the grass.  Except to enable those with no real hobby authority the chance to pretend they do so.

Whether this forum or that one ( or any other forum) hugs, kisses, embraces, endorses or makes sweet sweet love to an event does matter a bit, period.  The 100-200 folks who really base thier schedule off such will be burnt out in a year or two anyhow, and you will see their gear for sale on the same forums within 18 months.  Most folks, even the cph commmunity, goes WHERE THEIR UNIT GOES.  Standing organizations still, and always will, continue to control the hobby.

Some folks have chosen to marginalize themselves out of the game, and that is really for the good.

Others have seen the hobby at its low point and are working to get it back to where it once stood, before the web took all the fun out of it for them.

Coming full circle, I still say the active number of men in the ranks in the entire hobby might number 12,000 at most.

Look for that to hit less than 8,000 by 2011.

And then the hobby, like everything else, will come full circle and cycle through the 150ths with a 200% growth rate (at least)

Pards,

Charles,

Just for the heck of it I wanted to see how many post you really had and this is what I found.

OTB 45,078 posts
AC 1,555 posts
CGF 336 posts
Szabo's Forum ?

When do you have time to do anything else in life?

Just wondering,

I may end up with a double post here...   Does that count as two?

Quote :

Charles, AHT is there because Chris submitted it in July before he was banned.  One measure of how easy it is to submit anything related to him is the fact that my first attempt to simply post an AAR of September Storm got pulled and was only restored after a direct appeal to Calloway.

The AHT event is there because it was submitted, approved, and is in the right place for such an event with an appropriate adjunct. James Owens is heading up that effort, and I suspect we’ll hear more about that this coming Saturday afternoon in Elmira. As you may or may not know, James took the time to present his plan for a 90 man portion of a 262 man adjunct on the afternoon of July 21st at 2nd Kernstown during a regularly scheduled Potomac Legion membership meeting. Previously, Rob Murray had explained by phone how this would work with elements of the Western Brigade. Anders’ post is dated July 18th.

You may have talked with Paul about your September Storm AAR, but his attitude that morning was “why is this crap on our forum?” As to the September Storm AAR, the log in the AC Forum holding tank shows the first member complaint (it was not a moderator or admin) rolled in at 9:02 a.m.. The offending post was merged (not deleted) with the event thread at 9:23 a.m., and Paul made a text edit at 9:28 a.m.. Unfortunately, I can’t go into further details as to what transpires behind the scenes, but I was asked for a ruling on the AAR via IM, and stated it was suitable for that event thread.  In case someone isn’t paying attention, merging multiple threads about the same event is very common.

Quote :

This followed on the AC's purge of McDowell.

The McDowell thread is still there, and not even locked:

http://www.authentic-campaigner.com/forum/showthread.php?t=7030

Quote :

These actions, combined with an obscure process for approval (who's on that focus group, anyway?), will pretty much ensure that Chris's events remain delisted, whatever their merits.

AHT is over there, and don’t forget to follow the format, if you decide to post the Bedford training program.

Quote :

Your efforts to achieve exclusivity are paying off in the form of more and more people who simply won't bother.  Everyone loses from that.  If you're genuinely open, I'll try to be the first to get Bedford posted on the AC.

Exclusive? No. If that was the case, then there would be no Progessive movement.

Quote :

As for the 60 day complaint, I noticed that such a timeframe wasn't a problem for this year's "Death March" event, which was announced on June 24, to begin on August 10. If I calculate that correctly, it's a little under 50 days.

The Manassas Gap rendition of the LHG’s annual Death March was announced in July 2006, and was well within the lead time for a primary event, however, it was a secondary event. At that time, it was “date TBA early-to-mid August,” and the date was set at a meeting in Oswego NY on Saturday, October 28th, 2006.  Feel free to ask Mike Lavis about this, as he was there along with Jim Doyle, Doug Oakes, Tim Bills, and several others.  Doug also made sure the DM 2007 effort was presented at a subsequent meeting in November. By the end of that month, three site visits had already taken place.  You can ask Pat Price about this, too. He wasn’t at any of the meetings, but I made damn sure he knew of the unfortunate date selection as soon as I returned home.

Now, you may ask why that event didn’t receive a big splash, and a lot of pimping, “rah-rah” postings, and all manner of hype.  For one thing, the organizers of the Death March aren’t Internet Junkies, and the more important aspect is a modicum of respect for Pat Price and Linda Trent.  The DM 2007 event wound up on the same weekend as the Fort Wayne (later pulled) and the Kentucky Trial event.  Sometimes coordination on the local and regional level, in this case upstate NY and the NE, doesn’t always mesh with the national scene.  With the death of the Fort Wayne event, and the Kentucky Trial event being fully subscribed or nearly so, the Death March had an opportunity to poke its head above water and wave to the adoring throngs on the shore.  

Quote :

Chris was banned when he placed a similarly short notice of the Kerns' tactical in "Tier 1."

That is untrue. Chris was banned for other reasons, and that being an admin issue well above the level of mere moderator, I’m not privy to all the details, but can say it was a long time coming.

Quote :

According to Linda Trent's AAR, it belonged there.

If so, the event could have been submitted anytime from June  through August of the previous year when events are typically submitted, and even as late as September through October when the great sorting out takes place.  Being an annual event, or nearly so, there wasn’t much of an excuse for not submitting the information earlier. The various end runs served to cause a significant amount of ill will, too.  All in all, what a shame it is those folks didn’t back off for a year, and choose to support TAG, but, as you say, consolidating folks at specific events is elitist, exclusive, and serves only to divide the hobby even further.  I must say this, the pop up event did answer the question, “If it’s TAG time, then where’s the TIC event?”  Shades of 2003.

Quote :

By the standards applied to the "Death March" it wasn't too short a notice.  Nonetheless the AC "moderators" (and I use the term loosely) let their apparent pique at Anders overcome their objectivity.

One event had nearly 400 days notice. The other event had less than 60 days notice. I fail to see the point.  I’m glad you used the term “loosely,” as the rank and file members are playing an ever larger role in policing the AC Forum lately, and that is greatly appreciated. Once in a while, the membership begins to gel a bit, and with the success of TAG as a great capstone for a dang fine year, I’m hoping that momentum will continue through 2008 and beyond. It’s a very positive time to be in the hobby.  

Quote :

Inconsistency is perhaps the kindest term one can apply in this case.  A more accurate one might be hypocrisy.

I can buy broad brushes at Sherwin-Williams, too. Up until the 2007 submittal period (for the 2008 event season), the events review, selection, and even acquisition in some cases, was handled by a handful of people. I’m probably the most visible.  In addition to their others duties, the folks who volunteered to be part of the AC Focus Group, have waded into events. Frankly, I’m tickled pink to have the additional involvement, and this has yielded some different points of view, as well as giving some of the movers and shakers in the hobby a place to put their events on the books several years in advance. This is a good thing in terms of communication, coordination, cooperation, and courtesy, to borrow Pogue’s old phrase.  When people are willing to work with each other, an event pipeline of sorts begins to emerge, such as was the case when Camp Morton tanked, and two other offerings came to the table in short order.

Quote :

I don't agree with Chris about everything, and I understand how he can grate some people the wrong way.  But I think his analogy to Orwell's satire of boshevism is dead on in this case.  Beyond that, I think he has a perceptive and intelligent vision of where the hobby is and where it's heading, and a coherent business plan for getting it there.  You on the other hand have a lot of time to spend online.

Yeah, I know. I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time piddling with this reply when most people already know this stuff like the back of their hand.

Chris was banned for other reasons, and that being an admin issue well above the level of mere moderator, I’m not privy to all the details, but can say it was a long time coming.

And thank God for that.  I enjoy the hobby much more and get much more done without worrying what the latests hardfarb trend might be.

And that is my official statement on that.

End the end folks will reap what they sow- the Good Book tells us that.

Now back to the topic at hand-

Has anyone disagreed there may only be 12,000 active participants in the hobby?

Anyone?

Pards,

"You may have talked with Paul about your September Storm AAR, but his attitude that morning was “why is this crap on our forum?” As to the September Storm AAR, the log in the AC Forum holding tank shows the first member complaint (it was not a moderator or admin) rolled in at 9:02 a.m.. The offending post was merged (not deleted) with the event thread at 9:23 a.m., and Paul made a text edit at 9:28 a.m.. Unfortunately, I can’t go into further details as to what transpires behind the scenes, but I was asked for a ruling on the AAR via IM, and stated it was suitable for that event thread.  In case someone isn’t paying attention, merging multiple threads about the same event is very common."

I'll just deal with this one.  Other members here belong to the "Scriveners Mess" where this got some discussion and so they know some of the background.  

It's significant that you don't give the date.  The AAR was originally posted the Friday before the activity you describe, then disappeared entirely.  Paul himself put it back in a separate thread after he got word of my complaint of censorship.  He copied the two-part version over on Szabos rather than the single-part version originally submitted to the AC, I suppose because the original version was lost.  It was this second version that was then moved again to a less prominent location.

There are similar time-place displacements in your other shaggy dog stories.

Charles, I'm a bureaucrat of 30 years experience, with an interest in period bureaucracy, so your involved attempts to explain away the obvious have, to the connoisseur, the entertainment value of FEMA's self-congratulating GPRA report after Katrina.

I especially enjoyed this statement:  "Chris was banned for other reasons, and that being an admin issue well above the level of mere moderator, I’m not privy to all the details, but can say it was a long time coming."

This combines the "I'm just a functionary" defense with the admission that, despite everything you've just said in defense of the AC's objectivity, Chris had it coming.

Indeed.  I guess he'd been on double-secret probation for quite a while.  

Thank you.  Now try to answer one of the simple questions posted earlier:  Who is on this focus group?  

Couldn't this "three-way" be taken off-line? Personally, I don't give a hoot in hades why someone was "banned" from another forum, or any of these other charges and counter-charges. They appear to be between individuals and have nothing to do with this particular forum. All this is doing is publicizing a personal spat.

Dare I say, not in the mantra of this forum. There are other one's out there that thrive on this type of mess.

Yep, it's time